Countdown to Brazil: …the South American bookies favourites

I hate the often used comment: “The bookies don’t usually get it wrong”.

Of course they don’t, they cover every eventuality with their odds.

 

So many people think their football knowledge is so great that they are willing to put down their hard earned cash against the odds of the various bookies. The trouble is the odds for normal and likely results are so poor that is not worth your while.

Why put a tenner on slim odds when you are only going to get pennies or cents back? Its not even worth the electricity and internet charge or the short walk down to the street to the shop. Nah, what we want is big bucks back in the hundreds and thousands but to get this you need a hugely,surprising result like a giant kill or unbelievable piece of good fortune.

The bookies have got it sown up.

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With that in mind I am still going to provide some odds for next year’s World Cup.  Why not?, the SPFL is done. Bayern Munich are going to romp the Champions League and Man City are shoe-ins for the EPL.

The favourites are Brazil (naturally) and Argentina. (If this was the final I would be happy with that).

Brazil are variably quoted at around 3-1 which is understandable as hosts but seems a bit kind considering they haven’t really impressed in the last few years:the last meaningful tournament they entered -2011 Copa America- ended in a humiliating quarter final exit against Paraguay. Although they claimed the Confederations Cup on home soil (against an exhausted Spain in the final) earlier this year and have clocked up some friendly against Portugal,Australia, South Korea and ummmmmm Zambia and Honduras they still have yet to hit full steam.

There’s no doubt they have a first 11 of quality player with the like of Ramires, Oscar, Paulinho, Luiz and Lucas plying their trade in the EPL and Alves, Marcelo,Adriano and Neymar in La Liga. Add to that Dante of Bayern Munich, Maxwell and Marquinos of PSG and a fair smattering of home based players then you have a strong batch of players. A fervent and partisan crowd should also provide an extra 10%, unless the pressure gets too much.

Argentina are 2nd favourites with odds of around 5-1.

With Sergio Arguero on fire this season and the best player in the world in Lionel Messi its hard to argue with this price.

In 2011 Argentina hosted the Copa America but that did little to stop them tumbling out of the competition at the hands of Uruguay in the quarter finals (5-4  penalties). It was a national disaster for La Abiceleste (the White and Sky blue) and provoked some national outrage.

Luckily under the guidance of Alejandro Sabella things have turned around.

Argentina were always going to qualify but that’s not to say they laboured at points with some poorish draws to Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru in heir campaign. But in the main qualification was straight forward.

On paper Argentina’s squad doesn’t have the same strength as Brazil.Together with Arguero and Messi they have Mascherano , Banega and Di Maria in La Liga, Higuain playing for Napoli and Lavezzi for PSG. The rest of squad is spread around Europe in the 2nd rate leagues.

December 23, 2013. Tags: , . Uncategorized. 3 comments.

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